Will mortgage rates drop before the end of 2026?

Nobody can promise that, and I won't. Rates have held in the mid-6s all year. The more useful question is what payment works for you at today's rate, and whether a buydown gets you there.

Is now a bad time to buy in Temple or Belton?

It's the best negotiating position buyers have had since 2019 — more inventory, less competition, sellers willing to talk. The trade-off is the cost of money. Whether that math works depends on your timeline, not the headlines.

Why did my insurance quote come in so much higher than the seller's?

Premiums are priced to you, the roof, and the claims history — not inherited from the seller. Texas premiums also rose about 60% between 2019 and 2024, so an older policy isn't a fair comparison.

Do I have to reapply for my homestead exemption?

If you already have it on your current home, no. If you bought within the past year, yes — and it's worth doing right away now that the exemption is $140,000.

Notes

Rates aren't the story anymore: what's really moving Temple and Belton mortgage payments this fall

September 14, 2026 · 6 min read

If you've been watching mortgage rates and waiting for the number that makes buying feel comfortable again, I want to save you some time. That number is not coming from the rate sheet this year. It's coming from your escrow account.

Here's where the market actually sits in mid-September 2026.

The national picture: more homes, fewer sales

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 6.76% the week of September 10 — up slightly from the week before, and stubbornly parked in the same range it's held all year.

Existing-home sales slipped to a 3.98 million annual pace in August, the first time below 4 million since June 2025. But inventory told the opposite story: 1.62 million homes on the market, up 5.9% from last year and the highest level since November 2019. Months of supply climbed to 4.9.

Meanwhile, 26.3% of listings nationally took a price cut in August, and only 29.6% of homes sold above list price. Sellers are adjusting. Buyers aren't in a hurry.

Texas: flat prices, more choice

Statewide, the median price is $342,900, and Texas home prices are running about 0.4% below last year — the thirteenth straight month of softness. Austin is down 2.2%. Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio all show negative annual home value changes. Months' supply statewide sits at 5.4.

In plain English: across most of Texas, a seller who prices where the neighbor priced in 2024 is going to sit.

So why doesn't buying feel cheaper?

Because the payment has two halves, and the half nobody talks about has been climbing fast.

Insurance. According to the Dallas Fed, Texas homeowners paid 60% more for insurance in 2024 than in 2019 — double the 30% increase nationally. Hail, the 2021 freeze, the 2024 derecho, higher rebuild costs, and pricier reinsurance all stacked up. There is good news buried in there: premium growth slowed to 4.3% in 2025, down from 18.7% in 2024, and reinsurance costs are finally coming down. But the higher base is now permanent.

Property taxes. The general homestead exemption is now $140,000 off your taxable value for school taxes, with an additional $60,000 for homeowners 65 and older — $200,000 combined. That's real relief, and it applies to the bills landing this fall.

Put those together and you get the 2026 situation: a buyer with more homes to choose from and more negotiating room than at any point since 2019, staring at a payment that didn't drop the way the price did — because insurance and taxes ate the difference.

What this means if you're buying in Bell County

Get an insurance quote before your option period ends, not after. I've watched deals get repriced late because the buyer assumed the seller's premium would carry over. It won't. Roof age, claims history, and carrier appetite in your specific ZIP can swing the quote by hundreds a month. Quote it in week one.

Don't budget off last year's tax bill. Ask for the current rate from the appraisal district, and confirm the homestead exemption is actually on the account. If you bought in the last year, file for it — it's free, and I'll walk you through it.

Use the leverage. With a quarter of sellers cutting price nationally and inventory at a seven-year high, a seller-paid rate buydown or a closing-cost contribution is a reasonable ask right now. Often a 2-1 buydown moves the payment more than a price cut of the same dollar amount. That's a conversation to have with your lender before you write.

What this means if you're selling

Buyers are not qualifying on your price. They're qualifying on principal, interest, taxes, and insurance — and two of those four have gone up since your neighbor sold.

That changes the pricing conversation. The home priced correctly on day one still moves. The home priced to 2024 collects showings and no offers, then chases the market down. And if your house has a newer roof, a recent HVAC, or an insurance-friendly history, say so in the listing — that is a payment advantage now, not just a feature.

If you want to know where your home actually lands in today's market, request a home valuation and I'll build it off current Bell County comps, not an automated estimate.

Thinking about a move in Temple, Belton, Salado, or Harker Heights this fall? Let's run your actual numbers — payment first, price second.